It appears Mississippi River will get lower sooner this year
By Ted Pennekamp
It is unlikely the Upper Mississippi River will see a flood this spring, barring unforeseen and prolonged heavy rains in the near future.
This past winter was dryer than the previous five seasons, which were the wettest on record in the Upper Midwest, according to the National Weather Service.
“The snow pack this year was substantially less than the last few and this definitely has reduced the risk of flooding this spring,” said Dan Fasching, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, St. Paul District Primary Mississippi River Regulator. “Snow is measured as snow water equivalent (SWE); i.e. we melt the snow to figure out how much water it contains. This year, SWE reports for northern Wisconsin and Minnesota were measured in the 1 to 2 inches range which is much less than the last few years when we have measured 5 inches or more for the same areas.”
Fasching said it appears the lion’s share of the snow in Minnesota and northern Wisconsin has melted off. He said he has been watching as the Upper Mississippi, the Minnesota, the St. Croix, the Chippewa, and the Wisconsin rivers begin to recede from the peak flows of last week. “That peak seems to be primarily representative of the snow pack melt, in my opinion,” said Fasching.
Fasching said this has been a more normal spring regarding river flows as compared to the last five years. “This year’s spring flows have been much closer to the historic averages,” he said. “I think this is a great opportunity for folks to see side by side the effect that water in the system (including snow pack and rain received) has on river levels in the spring and throughout the summer and fall.”
According to the National Weather Service, the McGregor gauge showed that the Mississippi River reached 11.71 feet on March 16. Flood stage at McGregor is 16 feet. On March 18, it was 11.59 feet. On March 19, it was at 11.2 feet. The river was at 10.8 feet on March 22, and at 10.4 feet at 2:45 p.m. on March 23. The river is expected to slowly rise again, however, and reach 11 feet by March 29.
The river was at 10 feet or higher for much of the summer last year, but did dip below 8 feet in early fall for the first time in several years.
Fasching said it is possible that the Mississippi gets down to 8 feet, or maybe lower, earlier this year, depending upon future weather. “I think it is entirely possible that water elevations will fall much earlier this year, but it’s hard to say how much earlier exactly,” said Fasching. “There is simply less water in the system and it will take less time to drain away, quite possibly months less. The last remaining unknown for this spring’s flood season is any future precipitation. It’s important to keep in mind though that at this time the river is full with the snow melt and any rain received at this time can build on that volume and change the flood outlook quickly.”
